When is a free-shipping threshold sustainable?

“Free” shipping is still paid for: the store absorbs it in contribution or includes it in prices. A threshold may encourage a fuller basket, but you must examine the cost of added items and the resulting parcel. A round-looking threshold is not a strategy.

Calculate from real baskets

Group orders by value, weight and destination. For each group, calculate contribution after product, payment, packaging and carrier cost. Model several possible free-shipping thresholds. Include baskets already above the threshold: those customers will receive the benefit without necessarily adding an item.

Illustrative example: a store often receives €45 orders with €18 contribution before €6 shipping. Offering free shipping above €50 could encourage an accessory purchase, but that accessory may make the parcel €3 more expensive to send. Recalculate the full basket rather than counting every extra euro of revenue as gain.

Make the promise precise

Show the threshold, eligible zone and exclusions near the cart. If the free service is slower, say so. A “€5 away” progress bar must account for currency, discounts and excluded items. Shoppers should not discover at payment that their region or product does not qualify.

Test without mixing effects

Watch average order value, contribution after shipping and orders by zone. Compare similar periods and record promotions or advertising changes. Review the threshold when carrier costs change. A higher basket value is not a win if total contribution falls.

Test carts close to the threshold

Free shipping is not free to the store: its cost is funded by margin, higher prices or larger carts. Group recent orders by amount, weight and destination. Find carts just below the proposed threshold. Ask what extra item a buyer might actually add and how much contribution that item brings after its own cost. An arbitrary threshold may prompt a profitable second item or make already large carts less profitable without changing behavior.

In an illustrative example, a customer orders €42 and pays €5 shipping. A €50 threshold may prompt a €10 accessory contributing €4, while the heavier parcel costs €1 extra. Waiving €5 shipping then loses €2 compared with the original cart despite higher revenue. If the accessory contributes €8, the result changes. Use actual product and carrier costs rather than cart value alone.

State conditions before checkout

Say “free shipping in mainland France on orders over €60” only if that is true for the relevant items. If bulky products are excluded, explain the rule near the offer and check cart display. A progress bar can help if it uses the actual remaining amount, including discounts. It misleads when the rule changes by destination the shopper has not supplied yet.

Test carts below, above and exactly at the threshold with different discount codes and addresses. Consider partial returns: if a buyer returns only the item added to reach the threshold, what happens to contribution? Follow applicable refund rules and the announced terms rather than inventing a penalty to compensate for a poorly designed promotion.

Measure the effect

Track average cart, contribution per order, shipping absorbed, checkout completion and returns. Compare similar periods; another promotion or a seasonal rise may explain a change without the threshold causing it. If total contribution falls, adjust the threshold or try another benefit such as clearer delivery pricing. Free shipping is a commercial option, not a requirement for conversion.

Questions about a free-shipping threshold

Which threshold should you choose? Study actual carts just below several possible levels. For each, calculate contribution if a buyer adds a plausible item and carrier cost rises. A useful threshold is affordable from margin and understandable to the buyer.

Should it cover every product? Only when costs support it. Very heavy goods or items fulfilled from another warehouse may need separate rules, clearly stated before payment. Test mixed carts.

Does free shipping always raise sales? No. It might change cart size, order completion or only margin. Compare similar periods and track costs absorbed, not revenue alone.

What if buyers add then return an item? Include that possibility in the trial and apply announced and applicable refund rules. Do not invent a return penalty to rescue a weak promotion; adjust the threshold if its economics fail.

A threshold worksheet

Export or list recent carts with their order value, contribution before delivery, packed weight and destination. Try two candidate free-shipping thresholds. For each cart newly eligible under a threshold, subtract the shipping amount the store would absorb. For carts just below it, add one product a buyer might reasonably choose and recalculate both contribution and parcel cost. Do not assume every buyer will add an item simply because a progress bar suggests it.

Now test the rule in checkout using a cart below, exactly at and above each threshold. Apply a discount and change country to expose boundary errors. Keep a copy of the displayed offer and the cost model. After a trial period, compare net contribution, not just average cart value. If the threshold changes behavior but reduces total profit, adjust it or use a clearer paid rate. If it produces no behavior change, the banner alone is not evidence to keep it.

Related guides

• Cart abandonment: find the cause before sending an email
• Online store pricing: calculate costs before matching rivals

Further reading: official documentation.